International enrolment caps are not justified by analysis of enrolment trends and are highly likely to damage the sector’s world-class assets, according to new analysis.
In addition, an over reliance on attracting 61% of students from just two countries had left the country’s higher education sector vulnerable.
Analysis of enrolment data from 2005-2023 released yesterday by Emeritus Professor Frank Larkins, indicates that while China and India account for more than 60% of 2023 enrolments, there had been an alarming narrowing of source markets, with 96% of international students in 2023 coming from just 13 nations.
Over almost two decades there has been a significant decline in enrolments from many near neighbours, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
“The introduction of caps will not help to arrest these disturbing trends,” Professor Larkins said.
Caps on enrolments at Sydney, Melbourne and Monash would reduce fee revenue by around $160 million, even if full enrolment is achieved, Professor Larkins writes.
If every university managed to fill their enrolment caps, the net loss to the sector would be $51 million in fees, but actual fee losses would be far greater, due to the challenges that regional universities would have in filling caps and unfilled places at numerous universities, he said.
“There appears to be no clear pattern of government decision-making behind the imposition of the 2025 intake changes on universities.” Professor Larkins said.
There had been strong growth in student numbers from Nepal, Philippines, Pakistan, Vietnam and Sri Lanka between 2005 and 2923.
The Analysis examined the number of international students at each university that were excluded from the Government’s cap measures, on account of them enrolling in an offshore campus or being enrolled in HDR studies, finding that RMIT led the pack with 7,297 international students enrolled in 2023 who would be excluded from the 2025 caps, followed by Monash with 5,326 and VU with 4,353.
“The role of Australian universities in contributing to Australia’s engagement with overseas countries, especially those in our region has been exceptional,” Professor Larkins said.
“Education exports rank fourth nationally and higher in some states and result from the intellectual capacity of staff and the world class resources available to our universities for teaching and research.
“There is a high probability that these assets will be compromised by the ongoing actions of the federal government, especially in terms of the declining proportion of core funding provided to universities and restrictions now imposed on the capacity of a university to raise discretionary income.”
The paper is a masterclass in policy analysis and will do little to quell concern over the sagacity and strategy of Federal higher education policy.
