Collaboration has been critical for researchers, institutions, and nations to achieve common goals and to prosper. However, international collaboration is under threat given the seismic geopolitical shifts we are witnessing.
Previously I argued that we have been evolving from a bipolar world, noting a shift away from the dominance of North America & Western Europe and towards Asia & the Pacific. I also observed that we are also witnessing that the Global North is accommodating to the rise of the Global South.
In fact, we are now seeing the fracture of the world order that had propelled modern science to be pivotal for the development and flourishing of liberal economies. The consensus of collaboration and cooperation which has prevailed over the past 70 years between countries linked by cultural or linguistic affinity is rapidly deteriorating.
The Trump administration has introduced policy changes that include dismissing thousands of employees in science organizations, freezing all federal grants, and removing sections of websites and databases from visibility. It may also lead to altering data collections pertaining to student demographic and other characteristics. These actions are likely to have lasting consequences for both Australian universities and the broader scientific world.
Meanwhile, several governments around the world, particularly in many liberal economies, have introduced a series of policy reforms that have contributed to the financial crisis of public universities and erosion of trust in universities. One such reform pertains to reducing number of international students in universities. We also know that universities are complex organizations, meaning tackling inefficiencies and implementing reforms are not straightforward.
Sustainable development agenda under threat
Overall, these policy shifts (including the defunding of the World Health Organization) will hinder progress towards achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are already lagging. For example, governments’ intention in reducing or redirecting foreign aid to fund defense or national security priorities will be detrimental to eliminating poverty and hunger (SDGs 1 and 2), ensuring healthy lives and promote well-being (SDG 3), and ensuring availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation (SDG6).
The push to drop or alter diversity, equity, and inclusion programs will adversely impact progress towards achieving gender equality (SDG5), promoting sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all (SDG 8), and reducing inequality within and among countries (SDG 10).
Scale of collaboration and activity with top partners
The United States is Australia’s number one collaborator for co-authored publications. Over the 2019–2024 period, there were over 115,500 co-authored publications recorded in Elsevier’s Scopus. The main subject area of such collaboration is in Medicine (40.2%), followed by Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (13.7%) and Physics and Astronomy (10.7%).
The United States is also the top fourth country (behind China, India and Japan) for Australian universities with active agreements covering academic and research collaboration and the United States is the top second (behind China) for staff exchanges.
In addition, the United States is the country where Australian universities have the most active agreements regarding student exchanges and study abroad programs.
Of the 5,000 international university students from the United States in 2023, about 46% were on exchange programs and 11% enrolled in doctoral programs.
Uncertainty further afield
We regularly hear that universities in the United Kingdom are announcing staff cuts, course closures, and concerns over the long-term viability of many institutions. The Office for Students estimates that 72% of English universities will be in deficit by the end of the 2025-26 academic year.
The United Kingdom is Australia’s top third collaborator for co-authored publication behind the United States and China. Over the 2019–2024 period, there were 90,400 co-authored publications. The main subject area of such collaboration is in Medicine (43.3%), followed by Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (11.9%) and Social Sciences (11.3%).
The number of institutional agreements between Australia and the United Kingdom is also significant, making the continued institutional crisis likely to have lasting implications for Australia’s research endeavors.
Transactional partnerships
We are witnessing the rise of multipurpose, multipolarity and transactional partnerships. Research endeavors are also concentrated in a small number of large entities spread across a few geographies. We are likely to see further concentration of research endeavors as well as educational delivery.
When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited President Trump in February, both countries signed an agreement to drive transformative change across key pillars of cooperation (defense, trade & investment, energy security, technology & innovation, multilateral cooperation and people to people cooperation).
The Indian Government’s commitment to building the scale and impact of higher education has set the nation on a trajectory to compete with China and the United States for supremacy in knowledge leadership. India invited institutions from the United States to set up offshore presences, step up academic collaboration, and enhance study abroad opportunities. Already several Australian and British universities are working to establish presences in various parts of India.
India has the second largest number of enrolments in tertiary education globally, but it has an unmet demand of about 40 million enrolments to attain a Gross Enrolment Ratio for tertiary education of 50%. This ratio is when national systems are considered to have reached ‘universal’ access to tertiary education.
It will be interesting to see how the United States – India agreement evolves as the Trump Administration proceeds with the array of policy changes. On the other hand, India will benefit from strengthening research ties and accelerating technological innovation; but on the other hand, it may contribute to a homogenization of curricula and educational outcomes.
China’s education plan to 2035
In early January, China issued a new plan for building a powerful country in education by 2035. One objective is to accelerate the construction of world-class universities and advantageous disciplines with Chinese characteristics. It also aims to cultivate and expand national strategic scientific and technological strength and effectively support high-level scientific and technological self-reliance.
China is Australia’s top second collaborator with over 110,600 publications over the 2019–2024, period. The main subject areas of such collaborations are Engineering (28.6%), Computer Science (21.0%), and Materials Science (16.4%).
China is also the country with which Australian universities have the greatest number of active agreements, of which 65% are focused on academic and research collaboration.
It will be fascinating to observe how the Australian government and universities are able to reconcile and balance the long-term relationship with China given the current global reality. The relationship between Australia and China has grown considerably since the 1970s when diplomatic and trade relations resumed, and education and research endeavors have been pivotal to this relationship.
What lies ahead?
University leaders and researchers need to adapt accordingly and be prepared to navigate ambiguity and uncertainty over many years.
As a starting point, we are likely to see decreased opportunities for research endeavors, which could result in a reduction in the number of joint research projects and fewer co-authored scholarly outputs. This will particularly impact the Go5 (Melbourne, Monash, Queensland, Sydney and UNSW), who are the Australian universities with the largest volume of publications in the top fields of collaboration with US and UK universities. These universities also attract most of the research income from international government sources, according to the Australian Department of Education’s higher education research income dataset.
Australian universities’ reputation will also suffer because of these policy shifts. We have already seen that the performance of leading universities in Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom in the reputation stakes have weakened in recent years. The standing of leading universities is likely to weaken even more as universities in the leading economies of Asia continue to strengthen.
A review of universities and researchers’ alliances, modes and methods of collaboration across borders will be necessary, particularly establishing safeguards to ensure these remain sound, viable, and integral in the pursuit of common objectives.
The global higher education and research scientific community is entering into unchartered territory, and this is likely to result in detrimental impacts on the sustainable development agenda.
Angel Calderon is a higher education global expert.
