Australian universities should be encouraged to enrol domestic students without excessive constraint, but then also encourage them to leave at the end of first year if the course is not for them, in an analysis of attrition issues by HE policy guru Andrew Norton.
Examining core issues driving the drop out rate of university students, Professor Norton has written that the gap between students who drop out during or after first year and those who drop out at the four year mark to be as narrow as possible, in order to save money for students and improve completion rates.
“The free ‘try before you buy’ period prior to the census date is a good feature of Australia’s higher education system. But if high-risk students aren’t identified before their first census date, it is cheaper for them in time and money if they don’t go beyond first year,” he writes.
Attrition rates have increased since the demand-driven system was introduced, but attrition after first year dipped significantly during peak COVID in 2020, before resuming to the previous level of around 15% of students dropping out after first year.
Lower student satisfaction rates during COVID demonstrated that students didn’t re-enrol in greater numbers because they were enjoying their study, but instead other options, such as unemployment were worse, Professor Norton said. As the labour market recovered, providing attractive alternatives to study in greater numbers, attrition returned to its standard 15% level.
Cost of living increases in recent years have undoubtedly been a contributing factor increasing the number of hours that students are working on average.
Two policies may help lower or at least keep a cap on attrition, Professor Norton argues. The 2024 support for students policy, ramping up support for struggling or failing students, could identify disengaged students faster and encourage them to leave – but equally it could also prolong the amount of time struggling students spend in the system, growing the number of students who hold on until after first year. Secondly the Prac Payment for teaching, nursing and social work placements, starting on 1 July, may help more students keep their head above water financially, with a potential reduction to attrition.
This analysis is an important contribution, given the impact of attrition on sector finances and workforce supply. Building engagement and reducing attrition will become an increasingly important focus of higher education operations as revenue is squeezed through international enrolment limits and increased compliance requirements.