Around an eighth of the nation's universities are hauling in massive revenue while many others confront dire deficits as an unintended consequence of Jason Clare's clamp on international student visa processing.
Obstructed from implementing caps in the last session of Parliament, and seeking to plug the perceived political vulnerability of voicing compassion or welcome to students from abroad, the Education Minister implemented Ministerial Direction 107, which slowed visa processing from countries perceived to be higher risk, as a blunt instrument to slow international student arrivals.
MD107 prevailed for much of 2024, only to be replaced by Ministerial Direction 111, which was a more sophisticated approach to reigning in supply, but the directive had already had a severe impact on many institutions, which continues to be felt, while four sandstones (Sydney, UNSW, Monash and Melbourne) each exceeded the $1 billion mark in international student revenues for the year, due to their ability to drag in more students from China and other nations with lower risk profiles during the MD107 period.
Changes to international intakes now and with the new ATEC can entrench those unequal outcomes, or address them. A flat growth percentage distributed across the sector simply allows universities which had already locked in a boom intake to make more hay, while those with numbers still well below pre-COVID times are tethered to a relatively tiny growth target.
The latest Federal announcement promises potential for growth for institutions demonstrating commitment to SE Asia and ability to provide more housing, but institutions which have already banked windfall gains in 2024 will be able to afford both more flights across to priority countries and more capital developments to build, while those running deficits as a result of MD107 will struggle to find money for either.
Alec Webb, CEO of the Regional Universities Network, is waiting until further detail emerges to understand whether his members will continue to be penalised, or whether policy will seek to address the impacts of MD107.
"There were a few institutions that benefited a lot through MD 107 and a whole lot that felt a lot of pain. Those with cash to splash now can try to spend their way out of the problem, whereas the others are struggling with deficits," he said.
"Ministerial Directions are kind of a one size fits all approach. Some universities have banked profits of $100 million while there was a $451 million deficit posted by RUN universities collectively between 2022-24.
"The big question is how does this look in 2027 with the ATEC. How are they going to view the sector? The ATEC are going to have to have 39 of these discussions about what it looks like in future, what sustainable growth looks like, or else risk a number of universities being punished by the consequences of MD107 for a decade while the biggest problem others have is how to spend their spare $100 million."