Optimists suggest a turn for the better in domestic enrolments. Frank Larkins demonstrates that it needs to be sharp and fast.
There were just 18,000 more Australian citizens at university in 2023 than in 2014, and 89% of them were in Victoria, Professor Larkins (Uni Melbourne) reports. This represents just 4.5% growth over the decade – well below population growth.
“The findings,” the ever-understated Professor Larkins suggests, “are not encouraging in terms of the role universities are playing in educating domestic citizens to gain higher level skills to serve the national interest.”
The big winner was University of the Sunshine Coast, which grew enrolments by 60%, presumably thanks to a strategy to serve population growth put in place a decade plus back by former VC Greg Hill. Much larger UTS was also up 22%, but after that few universities managed more than double digits, (Swinburne U (15.5%), RMIT (15.1%), Monash U (11.9%), Macquarie U (11.8%) and CQU (11.7%).
Of the 18 universities where the student population shrunk, Murdoch U led was mostest with the leastest, with a 19.1% decline, followed by James Cook U (17.9%) and Uni Southern Queensland (17%). Even the mighty Uni Queensland went backwards by 10% plus.
Across the country, the only product that increased sales was PG coursework, perhaps due in part to universities moving previous bachelor courses to postgrad. As for research student numbers, all Group of Eight universities declined, with RMIT, the only member of the big ten to grow, but only by 80 places to 1,290.
Overall Larkins warns, attracting more Australians to higher education, “must be an urgent national priority,” especially if caps and foreign competition cut subsidies from international student fees.
“To grow domestic numbers, a review of the Job Ready Programme would be a good start,” he writes.
Larkins new paper is a part of his Australian University Performance Review series, which is HERE.