For those of us who came of age during the heyday of globalisation, it is perhaps difficult to comprehend that it is over.
Australian universities – with the explicit backing of successive governments – rode the wave of globalisation more successfully than universities in almost any other country.
But events of 2024 have made it clear that this era of globalisation is over. We are going to need new models in 2025 and beyond, and new forms of partnership between universities and government.
The good news is that the rest of the world – and particularly our Indo-Pacific region – is not done with international education and research. Global demand for higher education is projected to grow to 2050. If we are clever, Australia can find new ways to ride new waves.
The debate about international student caps throughout 2024 has been a by-product of much larger shifts in economics, demographics and politics. Globalisation accelerated flows of people, knowledge and innovation in a free market model.
Professor Andrew Norton’s analysis shows that in 1990, there were 24,998 international students in higher education institutions in Australia. By 2022, that had risen to 524,514.
In 1990, academics in Australian universities produced 8,629 journal articles. By 2022, that had risen to 86,323, with most of the growth in research driven by international collaboration.
This has delivered major benefits for Australian society, economically and culturally. International students contribute to their classrooms and communities, with the vast majority returning home with very positive views of Australian education and society. And international collaboration increases the quality and impact of our research, and allows Australia to tap into cutting-edge knowledge and technology without having to fund everything ourselves.
Australian governments of all persuasions have encouraged this internationalisation over the last 30 years, with explicit strategies and support. I did two diplomatic postings in Australian Embassies overseas, promoting international education and research and working with foreign governments to remove regulatory barriers to mobility and collaboration.
But we’re in a new world now. As a former government colleague remarked earlier this year, globalisation and neoliberalism are over, and governments everywhere are searching for new models that prioritise economic security and sovereign capabilities.
Jon Chew at Navitas has provided the clearest and most accurate assessment of where this leaves international education at the end of 2024.
His analysis is that the “market era” of globalisation is over and that we are entering a new “managed era” of intervention.
In Australia, the Labor government announced plans to cap total international student numbers and introduce a new “managed growth” funding system for universities. The Opposition said that it will enact even tougher caps if elected next year. Governments in Canada and the UK have also introduced new limits on international students and migration.
The re-election of President Trump last month shows that the move away from globalisation is not just a blip but rather the new normal. In his campaigning, Trump quipped that “tariff is the most beautiful word in the English language” and promised a crack-down on immigration. Professor Joseph Stiglitz recently wrote that if the Democrats want to win again, they are going to have to dump their commitment to neoliberal economics once and for all.
So where does this leave Australia, and what does it mean for our globalised universities and our place in the world?
Our Indo-Pacific region is where the action will be in the 21st century. This brings many opportunities for Australia, but we are also going to have to manage new risks.
Dr Angela Lehmann has mapped the changing patterns of international mobility by students across the Asia-Pacific. Demand for education across our region is still strong, and as Anglo nations tighten their rules, more and more international students from the region are turning to countries such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines for their studies.
Indonesia is rising fast as an innovation power and the government is clear about what it wants from international research collaboration. The South Korean government is implementing a new “glocal university” program to boost internationalisation while making sure that regional centres are not left behind. And the Indian government knows what it wants from foreign universities to power its own domestic goals for education, research and innovation.
Australia now needs its own clear strategy for international education and research in this changed world. In the past, governments were happy to let the free market run and let universities cross-subsidise education and research from international revenue. But in our new managed system, we will need new models of governance, partnership and co-investment.
Transnational education (TNE) is a good example – Australian universities have been able to invest in offshore campuses over the last 30 years and have built an infrastructure that now connects us into our region. Government wants to see a new wave of TNE, but this will take long-term strategy, investment and commitment.
The same applies to research, with the government embarking on a new strategic review of the R&D system in 2025, focused on enhancing national capability and attracting foreign investment. But where will the next generation of Australian R&D leaders come from? 2023 was the first year on record when more of our commencing PhD students were international not domestic, with significant over-representation of international students in critical STEM fields.
We face big questions as a nation about the pros and cons of investing more in our domestic capabilities versus leveraging our links to the global system. In truth, we are going to have to do both.
There is no going back to the globalised market era. We will need to focus much more on equity – on economic inequality and the distribution of the benefits that arise from trade and the knowledge economy – and think in more sophisticated ways about the connections between the global and the local.
But with clever new models, clear strategy and long-term commitment, international education and research can put Australia at the forefront of the 21st century.
Paul Harris is Executive Director of the Innovative Research Universities (IRU).
