The Government has upped the pressure on universities complaining about quotas, by meeting a Senate demand for data, including this year’s new overseas student commencements.
The information shows spectacular growth at some of the most vocal quota critics. And it signalled to the Opposition that if Coalition Senators vote against quotas, Ministers will blame them for housing shortages, with the release of a Department of Education report making a case for international student pressure on capital city rental markets.
With the Parliamentary year running short, the Government is tight for time to pass the quotas bill as is, or negotiate amendments with the Opposition. And with a handful of months before Semester 1 begins, it risks chaos and accusations of mishandling if it does not achieve a solution rapidly.
However, the release of this year’s commencements also gives some Group of Eight institutions ammunition to argue that the Government is capriciously cutting core funding.
The Government presented proposed 2025 enrolments in comparison to 2023 numbers when it released quotas, but information on the increase in starts last year signals a harder hit for some.
The planned 2025 quota for the University of Melbourne is 9,300, down from 10,000 in 2023. However the cut is deeper than that. On the Department of Education estimate, there are 11,800 starters at Uni Melbourne this year. UNSW is allowed 9,500 for 2025, significantly down on 11,000 in 2023 and way worse on this year’s 17,300 starts. Similarly, the University of Sydney quota for 2025 is 11,900, a trim on nearly 12,800 in 2023 but a slash of this year’s 17,250.
Across other areas of the public system, the losses are generally less severe and there are enough wins and neutral results to ensure the sector will not unite in a universal campaign against the cuts. If the big losers complain, the government will respond by pointing to the rapid increase in enrolments this year as demonstrating some universities are growing rich without regard to the community.
Education Minister Jason Clare argues he is helping international education, by acting to “protect the integrity of this system and its social licence to operate.” And on Friday, he kept at Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley on Channel Seven’s Sunrise program to state whether the Coalition would back the caps or not.
“We are working through that. It’s important to do that. It’s important to do that properly, it’s important to do that in a consultative way. Let’s see where it lands. Right now, we’ve got data that tells us these migration numbers are way too high,” she responded.
But if the quotas Bill doesn’t pass, Mr Clare makes it plain that hated Ministerial Direction 107 – which leads to officials continuing slow and capricious in deciding on student visa applications – will stay.
And he will keep making a case for cuts, regardless of the impact on the sector or international students. As he reiterated in letters to Vice-Chancellors over recent months, the Government is committed to reducing migrant numbers, and “a part of returning to pre-pandemic migration levels is reducing the number of international students that come to Australia.”
