Young Australians are passing on the opportunity to sign up for degrees, with 2023 commencing university enrolments (262,000) essentially matching the last lowest figure, (263,000) in 2013.
Starts are nearly 9% under the latest peak, 2017 (288,000) – ignoring Covid-year numbers (what else was there to do?) which were marginally higher.
The Department of Education suggests starts are down because of cost of living pressures and a strong labour market. Overall, domestic enrolments were 1.076m, down from the 2021 peak of 1.162m and 1.102m in ’22.
The good-ish news is that the school leaver market is stable, with 53% of immediate Y12 completers starting university in 2023, same as in ’21 and up 2 per cent on ’22. DoE suspects fewer gap years post pandemic is the reason.
But if present numbers continue, improvements to attrition won’t resolve issues with overall enrolment numbers, as first year classes get smaller and the enrolment pipeline narrows.
Across all public and private universities, the percentage of students not coming back for second year is stable across the last 10 years; 14.65% in 2012, 14.71% in 2022. But the outliers are instructive.
The highest attrition rates for ’22 were at Torrens U (27%) CQU and Uni New England (both 24%). All up, 14 Table A and B universities lost 20% of their first year intake in 2022. At the other end, 8 universities had attrition rates 10% or under. UNSW (4.17%) and Uni Melbourne (4.75%) lead.
And those that stick it out are taking longer to complete their course. The six year completion rate was nearly 80% for 2006 starters but fell to 74% for those who began in 2017.
Provider Attrition Rate for overseas commencing bachelor students, 2018–2022
Image source. https://www.education.gov.au/higher-education-statistics/student-data/selected-higher-education-statistics-2023-student-data/key-findings-2023-student-data
