Domestic undergraduate applications have been on a trajectory of decline since 2017, despite a minor uptick in 2024, according to newly-released Federal Government data.
Applications and Offers for domestic undergraduates sit at around the same levels as 2012, despite a 20% increase in the Australian population over the period – indicating a significant decline in the proportion of Australians willing to sign up for an undergraduate degree.
Just over 300,000 domestic students applied for an undergraduate place in the first Semester of 2024, an increase of 1% on the previous year – similar to application numbers more than a decade earlier.
The Federal Government report on Undergraduate applications and offers 2022 – 2024 indicated that 40% of applicants sought entry through direct applications to university, with the remainder through Tertiary Admission Centres (TACs). In a statistic which will surprise those insisting on prejudicing young school leavers on their brochure covers, just 41% of applicants were from Year 12s.
Key finding 1: The trend is not your friend
Figure 1: Domestic UG applications and offers
As this chart shows, while recognising some changes in data collection systems over the period which may have had small impacts on accuracy, applications for 2024, while recovered from the low of 2023, sit at approximately the level of applications in 2011; while offers sit at 2012 levels.
It is important to note that students receive multiple offers and many students fail to take up offers made to them, and also that this data for some reason only reflects first Semester applications and offers made each year, but despite those limitations this data provides valuable insights into demand trends.
For a system reliant on growth to fund increasing costs in research and teaching, this means that universities have had to focus increasingly on building postgraduate and international enrolments, given the trend towards diminishing applications and offers over the past eight years.
Key finding 2: The proportion of Australians applying to study is diminishing
There were 22.7 million Australians in 2012, and 309,639 of them applied to study an undergraduate degree in the first Semester of that year – amounting to 1.36%
By June 2024, the population of Australia had risen to 27.2 million, and 302,254 applied for an undergraduate place, amounting to 1.11% –
The proportion of Australians receiving offers dropped from 1.12% (256,472 offers made) in 2012 to 0.94% (256,226 offers made) in 2024.
While the percentage changes are small, the fact that applications declined and offers have remained essentially static while the population has grown by 4.5 million souls or around 20% when comparing 2012 with 2024 could be a sign of a concerning trend.
Figure 2: Applications and Offers vs Australian population – percentage change 2012 vs 2024
Key finding 3: Surprise (not). JRG is still having no effect.
Health remained the most popular field for undergraduates in 2024, attracting 27% of applications, followed by Society and Culture (21%) and Management and Commerce (11%). This means the Job Ready Graduates scheme, introduced by the Coalition and continued by Labour, continues to fail to deter Australians from humanities courses and instead just saddles them with disproportionately large student debts.
However, Engineering and Related Technologies attracted the greatest growth in applications (9%) and offers (12%). This could mean that if Jason Clare continues to point in the other direction for long enough, he can continue to price gauge from humanities students on the justification that the Coalition’s policy could work. Alternatively, HASS Deans might just start selling their courses more convincingly, and the trend will peter out. The problem with demand analysis alone is that it doesn’t account for variability in supply-side factors.
Key finding 4: Unis are attracting fewer poor and rural students, despite the Accord
The Accord forecasts one million extra students being enrolled over the next 25 years, approximately, driven in part by a significant growth in underrepresented cohorts (Indigenous, students, students with disabilities, rural students and low SES students). The good news is that Indigenous student applications were up 2 per cent in 2024. The bad news is that Indigenous applicants are just 2% of the total – missing the goal of mirroring the population ratio across the country by one per cent.
With other under-represented students, the story is worse. The chart below excludes Queensland between 2019 and ‘21, but shows that the number of applicants from a low SES background dipped from 19.7% in 2021 to 16.5% in 2024, as the post-COVID cost of living crisis has presumably had an impact on participation for those struggling to afford time on campus.
We’ve shortened the axis range on the chart below to emphasise the picture – a 3.2% reduction in applications from people on low incomes is pretty bad news for sector diversity, underscoring the significance of the accord. Unless of course the sector yearns for a remake of Brideshead Revisited on campus sometime soon.
Figure 3: Number of applicants from a low SES background and their proportional share
Source: Undergraduate applications and offers 2022 – 2024
Key finding 5: Offers and ATARs are on the rise
We’ve all heard the arguments from the troglodytes at the back of the room that kids aren’t taught as well as people were in their day, screens are killing the brains of the young and the world should return to a place where they had time for a condescending chat with a tea lady in between sparsely populated classes of well-bred folk.
So you can believe that standards are in decline, or teaching is on the up, but whatever is happening we know two things – average ATARs have risen a couple of points over the past decade and we are making proportionally more offers now than we were back then. Average ATARs for those receiving an offer rose almost two points, from 76.5 in 2015 to 78.4 in 2024. The rate at which offers were made to applications rose from 80% in 2010 to 85% in 2024, although they have varied year to year, and declined to 82% during the depths of COVID in 2021.
Given that this data indicates only 41% of applicants are school leavers, there may be no correlation between the two trends. The occurrence is worth a look though. More interesting would be the changes in ATAR’s for courses alongside the changes in offers (as serious ATAR drops can occur when demand slumps to allow in students who universities believe are ready and able to complete a course, even though they shut the door on people with the same ATAR the previous year). But beggars can’t be choosers so we present the growth in ATAR’s in the chart below, noting that a lot more research needs to happen to understand whether chicken hormones are making kids smarter as well as stronger, initial teacher education courses really are better than they used to be, or the crusty old blokes are right and we are just dumbing down everything. Also, the stats only show those who received an offer, rather than ATARs overall.
Figure 4: Average ATAR for those receiving an offer 2015-24
Key finding 6: Applications and unemployment are closely correlated
This finding (and the chart below) come straight from the report. Essentially as job opportunities dry up, university looks more attractive and more people apply.
Figure 5: Change in applications and unemployment 1988-2024.
Overall, this report provides valuable insights into aspects of demand – and underline the importance of further importance to better understand the drivers and trends behind them.
Students do not make their choices in a vacuum. Variables include quality of brand campaigns, school visit presentations, websites, application processes, scholarships, internships, WIL, RPL, conversion processes, enrolment processes, course qualities and course delivery personnel (academic staff) – which can vary year-to-year and have significant impact on institutional and course-specific demand. But this data is a useful starting point to prime discussions on the future of the sector, and the ways institutions can survive and even thrive.