AI adoption appears to be diminishing the number of junior jobs available, according to US research which analysed job ads in 285,000 firms over the past 10 years.
The study, by Guy Lichtinger and Seyed Mahdi Hosseini Massoum from Harvard University, found that junior-level jobs declined sharply in firms adopting AI from the first quarter of 2023 onwards – driven primarily by reductions in hiring, rather than staff being sacked.
Interestingly, graduates from mid-tier institutions were the worst affected, while graduates from colleges and universities with very high or very low status were less affected.
“In many such jobs, workers begin at the bottom of the career ladder performing intellectually mundane tasks, i.e., routine yet cognitively demanding activities such as debugging code or reviewing legal documents, which are likely to be especially exposed to recent advances in AI,” the authors state.
In contrast, senior roles requiring managerial responsibilities or more complex problem-solving skills were proving safe for now.
The researchers examined the fortunes of around 62 million workers in 285,000 firms in the US between 2015 and 2025, using data from LinkedIn and Revelio Labs. The looked at which firms were explicitly recruiting for ‘AI integrators’ to identify firms that were AI adopters – amounting to 3.7% of firms reviewed.
“The largest reduction occurred in wholesale and retail trade, where adopting firms hired roughly 40% fewer juniors per quarter than non-adopters. This pattern may reflects the greater substitutability of junior tasks in these sectors with generative AI tools, which can automate routine communication, customer service, and documentation,” the authors wrote.
As the chart above shows, in firms that adopted AI, senior level employment rose while junior roles fell.
While noting that the impact of AI varied across sectors and between cohorts, the research suggests some serious implications for the value proposition of tertiary education.
“Generative AI appears to shift work away from entry-level tasks, narrowing the “bottom rungs” of internal career ladders. Because early-career jobs play a critical role in lifetime wage growth and mobility, these dynamics may carry lasting consequences for inequality and the college wage premium,” the researchers said.