There were 955,000 international enrolments in Australian schools, colleges and higher education providers in August, including individuals with multiple enrolments. However, the numbers are set to settle, with August YTD commencements (376,000) well down on the 2019 pre-Covid peak (399,000).
But while higher education starts are flat for the third year in a row (just over 180,000) it is not the university sector that has taken the hit. VET is down 20% to 120,000, right back where it was in 2019.
And despite complaints from some university lobbies, the present HE base is still 13% up on 2019 – underscoring Assistant Minister Julian Hill’s point that the core challenge ahead is redistribution of international numbers, not total growth volumes. Total enrolments, as distinct from individuals, in August was a record 512,000. VET was 25% higher than in 2019, at 317,000.
Across all sectors, there were 58,000 commencers from China YTD August, marginally down on last year and a stable 33,000 from India.
HE will continue to prosper from the Masters market. While coursework degree commencements are off their 2023-24 peaks of just under 100,000, there were still 86,000 starts YTD August, including 34,000 students from China. And a third of them started Masters in the management and commerce field.
Overall, the system has not taken the hit much feared last year. And explaining the difference between enrolments and total students is a job universities will want to leave to Ministers.