VET completion rates for 2020 starters were 49% by last year, up 1.5% on the class of 2019, which the estimable National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) really rates, given pandemic disruptions.
The NCVER also appears to anticipate suggestions that a 50 % attrition rate is woeful (imagine the howls if that applied to universities).
“Students who complete part of a VET qualification often get what they wanted, gaining skills that lead directly to work, promotion or further study,” MD John King says.
“Some programs, such as those focused on foundation skills or targeted skill sets, are designed to help people take the next step, not to complete a full qualification.”
Completion rates by course are much the same for 2019 and ’20 commencing students, with just four above 50% for both years. At 64% completions in 2024 “Natural and physical sciences” was 10% clear of health.
A big difference is time taken to complete. In 2016, 58 % of course starters got it done in a year, down 9% in 2020. On current data the NCVER projects the completion rate for 2022 commencers will be 51 %, with 49 % already done.
As for the Fee-Free TAFE cohort, as ever the evidence is elusive. Yes, it is in the new data, it just is not just visible. “While Fee-Free TAFE activity falls within scope of reporting, it is not separately collected and therefore cannot be identified in the data.” NCVER has long warned it is not resourced to extract data for the federally-funded, state-based Fee Free TAFE programs.
This is not great, given it would be good to have independent analysis on what is accomplished with the $1.5bn spent on funding 500,000 FFT places since ’23. For now, Department of Employment and Workplace Relations advises that from January 2023 start to September just passed, there were 725,000 enrolments and nearly 214,000 completions.
With nearly 200,000 enrolments, the Care sector just about equals the next four, technology-digital (70 000), construction (60 000) early childhood (56 000), hospitality (27 000).
As to attrition, so far there have been 214,000 completions.