Education Minister Jason Clare has claimed a record enrolment of Australians in university this year, despite linking his Media Release to new Department of Education data showing domestic commencements peaked in 2021.
“More Australians started a university degree this year than ever before,” Mr Clare said in the first line of yesterday’s media release. The release then linked to data from the Department of Education, which show that domestic commencing students peaked at 314,231 in 2021.
Enrolments have been progressively recovering from a slump in domestic demand in 2022, when Mr Clare took office, but the trend over the period highlighted in the data release represents a decline of just under 1% or 2,490 enrolments over the 2021-26 period. The commencing domestic cohort numbered 311,741 in 2026.
The year to date data for 2026 was released by the Department in an unusual, widely-welcomed move just one day after our story identifying clear issues with the lack of timely data available.
In the second paragraph of Mr Clare’s press release he correctly notes that the Department’s data shows a 5.3% increase in domestic commencements, but the chief claim of a record commencing cohort is contradicted by the data it links to as evidence. The Minister’s Office was asked for a response last night, after Future Campus become aware of the error, but were not able to respond by deadline.
The Department’s data in fact tells a story that the sector may be proud of but Mr Clare's office may prefer to set aside. While the Department warned that data was preliminary and should be treated with caution, relating to trends as at 01/05/2026 in 2021-2026, they show:
- Domestic commencing students fell by just under 1%, or 2,490 over the period, to total 311,741 in 2026
- Total domestic enrolments have declined by 3% or by 29,527 enrolments between 2021 and 2026 according to the provisional data, with a total domestic enrolment of 942,111.
- Total international enrolments have risen 35%, by 122,980 to 472,245.
- Total student numbers have risen to a record 1,414,540 – but the record number is solely driven by international student growth.
It is important to note that this is not complete data – it only shows Semester One enrolments essentially, and full-year data (not yet available) is required to develop an accurate picture. But yesterday’s data underpinned the Minister’s claim of record growth.
This is the third data problem Mr Clare has had in two weeks, following his exclusion of Indigenous students and medical students from his growth calculations in a Media Release on Tuesday hailing the passage of his Open Doors legislation, drawing on data that was not publicly available and his speech to University Chancellors last Wednesday, when he again claimed a 30% jump in students ‘starting a degree in Australia’ on his watch.
Enrolments dipped between 2021 and 2022, when Mr Clare assumed office, so there has been some good recovery of enrolment numbers in some areas while he has been Minister, but the longer-term trend is not his friend.
Just days after Mr Clare has assumed extensive new powers over domestic enrolment numbers via Managed Growth funding, Needs Based Funding, ATEC, a strengthened TEQSA and yesterday’s announcement of ongoing funding for a student ombudsman, there is an acute need for data transparency and ability to tell a fair and accurate story of what is happening to the sector.
Growth in international students would have been a triumph for Government five years ago, but is now seen as a political millstone – while domestic numbers which are supposed to soar to meet the goals of the Accord have actually declined since 2021.
For a sector saddled with massive levels of new regulation, three data issues in a fortnight raises some serious concerns.