Tradie jobs need to become more attractive before Australia’s critical shortage of skilled labour is addressed, according to a report from Jobs and Skills Australia.
In the meantime, university graduate employment will continue to grow, simply because growth in technical and trade jobs is constrained by the relatively small number of Australians that want to do them.
These insights are an important part of Jobs and Skills Australia’s efforts to demonstrate the mismatch between current patterns of educational attainment and workforce need – reflecting a chronic shortage of tradies. It is a report that will be critical reading for anyone wishing to contribute to debate around migration and housing shortages, as well as international student policy.
The critically-important Jobs and Skills Australia Pathways to Success report shares hypothetical modelling showing the extend of the education-worker demand mismatch. If students no longer were allowed to choose what they studied and instead were allocated a course and compelled to start a career according to what was most needed in the economy, there would be a 139,000 slump in jobs for graduates with degrees and a 106,000 rise in VET-qualified roles.
More than half of technician and trade occupations have been in persistent shortage since 2021 – and not much is going to change unless those jobs become more attractive.
Given that we don’t live in a command economy where workforce wizards dictate the future careers of citizens, the existing trend of severe shortages is forecast to persist in trades areas, particularly within the construction, engineering and automotive sectors – and by far the largest growth in worker numbers over the next 10 years will be in professional roles. Technical and trades roles would grow faster, but there are simply not enough people interested in doing them, so their growth is limited to those who agree to traverse the less popular career route.
Professionals are projected to grow the fastest and remain the largest occupation major group over the next decade
5 and 10-year employment outlook, by occupation major group
Source: 2026-2036 Employment Projections, produced by VU for JSA.
The report lays the blame for VET graduate shortages squarely at the foot of employers. While Australian workers enjoy some of the best conditions in the developed world, employers facing critical staff shortages will need to look at where jobs are located, what capabilities are required, and how they are designed, rewarded and organised in order to start attracting and retaining more workers.
Key Insights
- Imbalance: The dream for Australian workforce planners would be about 100,000 prospective students deciding to pursue a trade instead of a degree over the next decade. As noted above, this is highly unlikely unless industry takes major new steps to address the unattractiveness of apprenticeships and trades careers, based on existing trends.
- Plenty of jobs for grads of HE and VET: Despite the workforce imbalance, there will be plenty of jobs for graduates based on current trends “with more than half of projected employment growth over the next decade in Skill Level 1 occupations which require a bachelor degree or higher.” This is in part because not enough people want to do any of the other jobs (machinery operators, personal service workers, admin workers, salespeople, labourers and tradies).
- We want thoughtful tradies: References to critical thinking and problem-solving in construction trade advertisements have more than tripled over the past decade. If only the thoughtful tradies wanted the jobs available.
- AI impact is still uncertain: JSA did some modelling of the impact of AI on jobs last year, which is a bit like a century ago in AI-years. Their crystal ball is a little less cloudy than most, but the impact of AI on future jobs is far from certain for most occupations.
- We need to use the talents of staff better: 33% of women and 27% of men currently work in occupations below their skill potential.
- JSA checked in with the Accord’s target market: Around 40% of adults who wanted to undertake tertiary education did not participate, mainly because of time and cost.
- Lifelong learning is a very big deal. In 1978 around 12% of women aged 65+ still worked – now the figure is around 55%. Working lives are getting longer and AI use is high, particularly with younger workers.
Labour force participation rate of population aged 55 to 64 and 65 years and older, total and females, 1978 to 2026
Source: ABS, Labour Force Australia, detailed [time series spreadsheet], March 2026.
- AI won’t tip everybody out of a job – AI has a far greater potential to augment rather than automate occupations, JSA says, with nearly half of workers in occupations likely to experience change rather than disruption. A quick glance at those not yet using AI much (older workers) underscores the importance of lifelong learning.
Proportion of Australians in each age group using AI
Source: Roy Morgan, 2026.