Source: Andrew Norton Blog
TAFE and the VET sector have succeeded in growing enrolments of low SES students in recent years, but in the university sector, students from poorer backgrounds are becoming relatively scarce.
High fees as a result of JRG and increased cost of living have been widely suggested as key factors, but Monash University HE policy guru Andrew Norton has plunged into the data and emerged with some intriguing insights.
Low SES university enrolments have declined since 2016, but low SES applications have dropped from almost 70,000 in 2021 to around 53,000 in 2025 – indicating a significant slump in demand.
“In his UA speech, the minister (Education Minister Jason Clare) blamed the Coalition for terminating the demand driven funding system at the end of 2017,” Professor Norton writes.
“That cannot have helped enrolments, but a supply-side change would not have any short-term effect on applications. Post-COVID many universities have, in any case, been unable to use all their allocated funding. Reduced enrolments reflect limited demand rather than constrained supply.”
There are four key factors that have temporarily reduced demand from low SES applicants, Professor Norton says:
- Mature age students completing their studies
- Stronger alternatives in the job market
- A dip in demography of potential students
- A rise in the number of students choosing VET over HE.
In addition, declining secondary school performance and relatively low student income support also seem to be key ongoing issues.
Demographic change means that Australian universities may now see some growth in low SES demand.
“Conditions are in place for growth in low SES school leaver applications and enrolments. But I doubt the academic fundamentals can support the low SES enrolment share increases that ATEC will demand,” he writes.