Education Minister Jason Clare told Chancellors this week that student commencements had risen 30% on his watch – but departmental figures indicate that the growth, coming off a post-COVID slump in 2022, is at best 19%.
Mr Clare was elected in 2022 when domestic CSP commencements were in a post-COVID slump, down more than 30,000 to 296,976, after a record high the year before. Mr Clare told Chancellors that 274,000 students started a university degree in Australia, which is incorrect by more than 200,000 when all students (including internationals) are considered, but also incorrect by more than 20,000 if only talking about domestic CSP starters.
Furthermore, when considering the trend, growth between the 2021 peak and Mr Clare’s projected commencements for 2027 amount to a total of just 7% growth over six years – raising real concerns about the potential of reaching the 2050 growth targets that the Albanese Government adopted from the Accord.
That's why the statistic matters – a speechwriter's miscalculation is less significant than the facts about national education trends and whether the Government is aware that trend growth for domestic CSPs is actually quite low.
While Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway famously described incorrect statements about crowd numbers as ‘alternative facts’, it would be hard to plead the same here – the figures quoted in Mr Clare’s speech are directly contradicted by his Department's official numbers.
In a valedictorian address to the final meeting of the Universities Chancellors Council on Wednesday, Mr Clare claimed that student commencements had grown 30% in his term, but these statistics appear to be undermined by his own department.
FC was surprised by such positive figures, given our recent coverage of research by Frank Larkins indicating a long term decline in domestic enrolments.
In a valedictory speech to the final meeting of the University Chancellors Council, Mr Clare said the growth in enrolments on his watch would change the way universities looked – and also mean universities would have to change the way they acted.
“When I got this job, 274,000 students started a university degree in Australia. Next year that number will be 354,000. That’s big. That’s a jump of about 30 per cent,” Mr Clare said.
The current and anticipated future growth was an important reason to change the way that universities functioned, Mr Clare said, taking the opportunity to remind Chancellors how they collectively needed to do better across a range of areas.
However, Departmental figures state that after domestic CSP enrolments peaked at 330,223 in 2021, they slumped post-COVID to 296,976 in the year that Mr Clare came to power as Education Minister, 2022 (more than 22,000 above the number he stated). Unfortunately public figures from the Department stop at 2024, when domestic CSP commencements had risen to just 319,918 – still below the 2021 peak.
Even if domestic CSP commencements grow to 354,000 next year, that would be an increase of 57,024 commencements – a 19% increase in commencements from the post COVID trough in 2022. This would also represent an increase of just 23,777 on 2021 figures – a 7% increase over six years.
Certainly, total commencing student numbers increased 16% in just two years on Mr Clare’s watch, from 593,556 in 2022 to 689,503 in 2024, but he is likely to be less inclined to claim credit for that figure, given that this includes growth in international commencements – something that is suddenly tres uncool in the political establishment. The Open Doors Bill which Mr Clare mentioned that he hopes to pass next week is accompanied by a less well publicised 'closed doors' strategy that is cutting down international commencement numbers via visa prices and processing slowdown.
In case this is not confusing enough, it is not clear how Mr Clare has calculated the 354,000 commencements next year, although he said the first round of mission based compacts between universities and ATEC had almost been completed, so we are assuming this is the ceiling for total domestic CSP commencements, and not a forecast figure. Given penalties for over enrolment, it is possible that actual domestic commencements will be below this figure in 2027. However, there are also penalties for under enrolment, so a few universities may need to go cap in hand to anyone with a pulse to fill seats.
This also raises subsequent questions about whether higher attrition rates will accompany the new policy, as universities desperate to fill their cap may accept students less ready for university-level study – but those outcomes remain to be seen. If the current lags apply, we will only see first year attrition for the first new cohort under ATEC by 2029 at the earliest.
Mr Clare’s office was contacted for comment.
In the meantime, we can only hope for more timely national data, so that we can all have a clearer view on progress towards the Accord.