The introduction of ATEC controls over domestic student enrolment numbers could result in the end of deferrals and smaller, potentially time-limited offer rounds for Australian students fighting for a place at university.
Australia’s pre-eminent higher education policy analyst, Professor Andrew Norton, told the HE FEST conference last week that the establishment of the Australian Tertiary Education Commission (ATEC) and a new system of mission-based compacts which allowed the Commonwealth to control the number of Commonwealth Supported Places at each university could have significant impacts on admissions.
Under the new system, the Minister will set the Total Allocation Pool for places from 30 June 2027 onwards, with tight limits proposed on over-enrolments and penalties for under-enrolment.
At present, 21 out of 37 universities are over-enrolled above proposed cap lelves – with Monash and UTS more than 7,000 students above the threshold, Professor Norton said.
The requirement for universities to achieve enrolment outcomes very close to the allocation handed to them by ATEC was likely to significantly impact admissions policies and practices, he said.
Guaranteed entry schemes were a risk for more popular institutions – with the Universities of Sydney and Melbourne already scrapping their schemes.
Students may no longer be allowed to defer their offers at some or all institutions, and smaller offer rounds may be required. Professor Norton said universities may be forced to consider other approaches such as offers with a short acceptance window, so they can accurately manage the total number of enrolments for each intake.
Careers practitioners speaking at the conference said they were also concerned at the potential shake-out of the legislation, which was expected to result in fewer offers for secondary school completers in coming years.
The changes were also likely to have significant implications for tertiary education marketing, with more limited student choice resulting in changes in the dynamics of the student market, and greater involvement of regulators scrutinizing marketing and communication materials.