Education Minister Jason Clare's office has shared exclusive data with Future Campus indicating that his comments that “More Australians started a university degree this year than ever before,” were informed by a previously unseen Department of Education forecast relating to expected enrolments of commencing domestic undergraduate students.
As identified in Friday's Future Campus story, the Minister's statement was incorrect and total domestic commencements for 2026 remain below 2021 levels – in line with the newly-released data showing an overall decline in both domestic commencements and total domestic enrolments between 2021 and 2026.
However, the Minister would be right if he stated that 'More Australians are forecast to commence an undergraduate degree this year than ever before.'
This statement is supported by internal Departmental forecasts released to Future Campus, based on the available May Year To Date trend data – noting that in its release the Department that the May data was preliminary and should be 'interpreted with caution.'
The forecasts, shared with Future Campus, predict that domestic undergraduate commencing students will grow to a record 293,326 enrolments at the end of 2026.
If this number is achieved, it will be the highest number of commencing domestic undergraduate students on record.