In the rush to demonstrate the efficacy of the new managed growth system, Education Minister Jason Clare is spruiking a growth record not yet attained, based on unreleased Department of Education data.
Future Campus was surprised by last week’s Media Release from Mr Clare, which proudly proclaimed that more Australians would attend university in 2027 than ever before.
“More Australians will go to university next year than ever before, with the number of fully funded university places in 2027 announced today,” Mr Clare’s release says in the first line.
The problem is, his office says that the headcount of the number of Australians going to university is based on departmental data. The headline growth claim is therefore not supported by the additional Commonwealth Supported Places provided – as the second and third paragraph appear to imply
Mr Clare’s office confirmed that 23,090 additional Commonwealth Supported Places (CSPs) will be provided next year, bringing the Total Allocation Pool of CSPs set to be distributed via ATEC for university enrolments next year to 624,590. However these CSP’s are for EFSTL, not headcount and the Minister’s claims related apparently to headcount.
The Minister’s office assures us that the department has done the numbers on their forecasting and are certain that total student numbers will be higher next year – but the data is not publicly available.
Here are a few of the considerations that are leaving HE leaders and planners confounded by the growth-speak:
1. May, Not Will – The Minister’s growth statement is based on a forecast, but uses the term ‘will’.
2. No Data Available – Because the Department data to make this prediction is not publicly available, we have to take the Minister’s statement on face value, but we have no idea how much higher, or what the figures mean, other than it is forecast to be higher than the 2026 headcount of 1,105,566, including 726,881 Bachelor degrees.
3. Overenrolments are going to be cut – ATEC has estimated overenrolments were likely to be around 60,000 this year. The recent Open Doors legislation sets out penalties for institutions that overenrol beyond 5%, which should mean that overenrolments decline by more than 30,000. However, Mr Clare’s office said a ‘glidepath’ was in place for reducing overenrolments, so the 5% limit won’t be enforced next year. So we know that fewer than 30,000 overenrolments will be cut, but not how many.
4. Time to Turn TAP talk Off – The CSP statistic quoted in the second paragraph of the release relates to the Total Allocation Pool, which does not include demand driven enrolments such as Indigenous students, or medical students. For a sector and a Government that has made it clear that health and Indigenous enrolments are a top priority, the decision to keep quoting statistics that exclude them when marvelling at Australian growth doesn’t seem inclusive or politically sensible.
What is really happening?
The confusion over this media release follows three incorrect statements about growth by Mr Clare over the past month .
Well over one million Australians work and/or study in HE, and clear information about growth predictions and timely statistics are vital for planning and strategies.
At a time when the Government could be claiming some significant wins in their agenda, implementing a new operational and funding system for higher education in Australia, there will understandably be more scrutiny and anxiety over impact and outcomes. The CSP statistic is not relevant to the growth claim and the lack of data to demonstrate the quantum of forecast growth is a continuing problem for the sector.
The truth is that the Government yesterday released a significant increase of 23,000 Commonwealth Supported Places in their new Total Allocation Pool. Those places will be distributed to universities via ATEC, locking in new mission-based compacts.
However, these facts from paragraph two of the media release are apparently independent of paragraph one, which talks about a record headcount of enrolments being expected in 2027, based on existing, unseen data.
The media release even alludes to uncertainty over the numbers, mentioning that “ATEC can request more places where it thinks they are needed, including for students from poor backgrounds, the regions and the bush.”
So perhaps the media release is telling us that ATEC has decided to ensure a record number of students enrol in university in 2027? Certainly ATEC’s CSP Christmas spree demonstrates there is ongoing uncertainty over where exactly enrolment numbers will land.